Did you guys hear that the Boston Red Stockings maybe sorta kinda won the 2018 World Series championship? The rumors are true. They, in fact, did just that. There were so many unforgettable moments for the Red Sox in those 28 days in October. From Chris Sale pitching 85 percent deceased, Nathan Eovaldi spontaneously growing testicles of steel, Steven Wayne Pearce becoming OUR president to Mookie Betts finally learning how to hit again down the stretch late in the month, I can see myself and so many others telling our kids and grandkids about how special that postseason run was this past year. Sometimes when I’m in class, the library or just unable to sleep at night, I’ll think about all those things and every single jaw-dropping moment I can recall among the many. While the majority of this postseason run was magical beyond belief, we, myself included, tend to forget that none other than Craig Kimbrel was essentially the only negative to this ball club (people forget that David Price is actually good).
Throwing it back to the ALDS, Game 1. I was lucky enough to be able to attend it, a day I’ll sure as hell never, ever forget. I got to meet Jared Carrabis, my idol, as well as witness JD Martinez hit a cockshot over the Monster for the second time in five months and the Red Sox beat the New York Yankees in THE POSTSEASON. That didn’t come without a struggle, though, thanks to Ryan Brasier (who quickly turned himself around, I’m sorry for yelling those mean things at you from the Pavilion. I didn’t mean them. I love you) and Craig Kimbrel. Rick Porcello initially came in for the eighth and Kimbrel took over for four outs. By the time Kimbrel came in, the Red Sox were leading by only two, 5-3. It was pretty tense in that park at that point, as we all knew Kimbrel wasn’t exactly himself in the regular season; who knew what kind of antics he would pull on us in the postseason. If I recall correctly, he gave up a home run to Aaron Judge almost immediately with no outs. That was an absolutely terrifying moment for everyone involved, and it was just a sneak peek into how much of a liability he would soon become in the coming days and weeks.
When it was all said and done, for the month of October, Kimbrel had posted a whopping 5.91 ERA, allowing seven runs in 10.2 innings pitched. Not great! Every time Cora rang to warm him up in the bullpen, I’m fairly certain the entire region of New England collectively hollered at their television screens. It really was that bad. I was certainly a nervous wreck each time he stepped on the mound, let alone each time he threw a wild fastball.
Now, this man has a career 2.06 ERA. That is good. Very good, actually. He is one of the best closers ever, there’s no doubt about it. His velocity is unmatched, and HE is unmatched. Put him up against any batter in baseball and he’ll surely overpower them with his Christmas(™). But, he is 30 years old. And wants a six-year deal. And probably more than Wade Davis’ record-breaking $17.9 million average annual salary.
Kimbrel has had a phenomenal career…except when he pitches when it matters most, and also in non-save situations (this still makes zero sense to me). Now, any team would LOVE to employ a reliever of Kimbrel’s caliber. That’s obvious. The Red Sox sure as hell don’t want to lose him…all in theory. Think about it. He is 30 years old and is coming off easily one of his most disappointing and healthy seasons. He wants to break the bank with a six-year deal. His control has been a career-long issue with him; one of his few, yet seemingly detrimental flaws. What we saw from him in 2018 was concerning, as it was for the rest of the league, antsy to make him an offer he couldn’t possibly refuse. Now, it’s time to pump the breaks. While 2018, regular and postseason, are just a small sample size compared to the rest of his dominant career, it is both recent and very telling.
Most teams that are in on Kimbrel, I’m assuming, are young and teams ready to finally break onto the scene (IE: Braves). With the closer in baseball becoming ever so important and their role evolving by the year, it would be the definition of risky to “win the offseason” and sign this guy to a monster deal and, well, solely “win the offseason”. Highly-paid relievers signing with a new team and finally earning the money they deserve rarely work out, if ever work out. Think about it: most recently, AroldisChapman signed a five-year, $86 million deal with the Yankees just two years ago, Look who well that worked out for them. Nothing against a legend like Kimbrel, but I cannot envision him flipping the script on that, especially at this age, past his prime and coming off of a disappointing season. A team, like the Braves especially, cannot be that risky and careless by giving Kimbrel exactly what he wants just to be quickly disappointed. He’s a stud in the regular season, yes, but the goal is October. Well, from what we’ve all seen, he isn’t exactly a stud in the playoffs. Is it worth it to empty your hand for a closer that isn’t going to succeed when you really need him to? The answer is obviously no.
I like to think that teams will be smart in the coming months and pass on Kimbrel and force him to lower his asking price. For some reason, I just can’t see that happening. The name alone is too good to pass up in the eyes in the majority of the rest of Major League Baseball. Yes, his overpowering stuff is mesmerizing. Will he be able to sustain that until 36 years of age, competitively, coming off of a down year? I think not. Will his control get any better over time in his 30s? I also think not.
Unless the market turns their collective back on Kimbrel and forces him to lower his price, I cannot see Dave Dombrowski pulling out stops in order to bring him back. The Red Sox obviously absolutely have the means to afford Kimbrel (hello, 2.5% 2019 ticket price increase), but they sure as hell won’t voluntarily throw $18 million a year at a 30-year-old closer who looked like a trainwreck for them just one season before. People forget that Cora had Chris Sale and his nonexistent general health closed out Game 5 of the World Series for Boston just so he and the rest of us could get to bed at a reasonable hour that memorable Sunday night.
The moral of the story is, it will be okay if the Red Sox lose Kimbrel. It may not necessarily be ideal for that to happen, but it would be okay and generally positive in the long run. The Red Sox made a fantastic decision by drafting stud Durbin Feltman (AKA Dalton Firbush, if you know, you know) who will theoretically replace Kimbrel down the road and in the long run. In the meantime, the Red Sox will have Matt Barnes to take over as closer, or possibly even bring Joe Kelly back and allow him to assume that role that he pretty much singlehandedly earned in October, proving himself like so many other of his fellow teammates.
To put a long story short, I would be surprised if Craig Kimbrel remained a member of the Boston Red Sox and would be even more surprised if he wasn’t signing with a team and getting deservedly paid by them sooner rather than later. It should be interesting to see how it all plays out and how many/which teams will flock to him.
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