Yeah, I said it. I’m frightened. A nervous Patriots fan, how cliche. There’s never really a realistic reason to be frightened when you’re a Patriots fan, but I certainly still manage to find ways. In this particular case with this particular player, I think all Patriots fans should be frightened. At least worried.
Trey Flowers, the New England Patriots’ 2015 fourth-round draft pick, is about to be a free agent after four outstanding years with the team, which includes three Super Bowl trips and two rings. Not too shabby. The twenty-five-year-old has had back-to-back phenomenal seasons with New England, essentially anchoring their defense while steadily getting better as his career has progressed. In his last two seasons, he has played 29 of 32 possible regular season games while recording 119 total tackles (17 of those for a loss), 45 quarterback hits, 14 sacks and five forced fumbles. In 2018, he totaled a career-high in sacks with 7.5 and tallied 20 quarterback hits, 57 total tackles and three forced fumbles.
Flowers’ numbers are notably average, as he has never been named to the Pro Bowl, which is pretty laughable when you think about who he is as a player and an athlete. Given that his numbers aren’t eye-popping, he doesn’t stick out nearly as much as he would on any of the other 31 NFL teams. For as talented as he is and as much of an impact he has on nearly every play, it’s weird how easily you can forget about him when watching a Patriots game. When playing in New England, you’re bound to be “forgotten about” and not nationally talked and raved about compared to others in your tier. On an ever-changing New England Patriots defense, it’s much easier to naturally lack the credit that you deserve among the public.
Flowers is a much, much, MUCH stronger pass-rusher than his numbers have shown in his career. He is as disruptive of a defender that you’ll see in today’s NFL and more versatile than most people know. Seriously, if you have the time, hop on YouTube and watch some defensive Patriots film or even just some Trey Flowers highlights. You’ll see that he isn’t just an edge rusher. He can line up literally anywhere on the defensive front and is rarely seen out of place wherever he may be lined up. He’s played both defensive tackle and defensive end on multiple occasions in one game alone, which is one major factor in regards to his value not just on the Patriots, but in the entire National Football League, which is one reason as to why he is about to be such a sought-after free agent.
While doing my stats research for this blog, I stumbled across this absolute gem from Pro Football Focus: only Dee Ford had more total pressures than Trey Flowers among all edge defenders in 2018. Like, holy hell (Dee Ford has already been franchise tagged by the Kansas City Chiefs, for what it’s worth). Flowers did gain a bit more national attention this past season than in previous seasons which was phenomenal to hear and see as a Patriots fan, but he still lacks the credit that he deserves after four seasons of giving his mental, physical and emotional all to the New England Patriots. Fowers is easily the most productive as well as the most experienced player on the Patriots’ defensive front seven, only making him even more valuable to this team in particular. If New England were to lose him to free agency, which is sadly what I’m expecting to happen, it would be impossible for the Patriots to replace him with ease as they have in the past.
This situation that the Patriots are in right now with Trey Flowers reminds me a lot of the one they were in with left tackle Nate Solder around this time last year. Solder was seemingly going to be impossible to replace and the Patriots were destined for an offensive line overhaul without Brady’s blindside protector that had been there consistently for six years. Solder was by far the best left tackle on the free agent market with no one even close to him as far as talent or value. Solder nearly forced the Patriots to bring him back and break the bank for him, considering there was no one on the depth chart who could replace him as well as knowing the Patriots wouldn’t draft for immediate left tackle need in the upcoming draft. The Patriots offered Solder a similar contract to the one that he signed with the New York Giants (4 years $62 million), so even the mastermind of Bill Belichick almost bit the bullet and brought him back. Regardless, the Patriots left the negotiating table and let the Giants have him. After just one season with his new team, it’s quite apparent already that the Patriots won that one, per usual. The Patriots drafted Isaiah Wynn in the first round of last year’s draft, the man who is seemingly New England’s long-term left tackle solution, and also signed Trent Brown who was a staple in the Patriots’ brilliant and downright flawless offensive line production in this past Super Bowl winning season, another guy who will absolutely break the bank and be overpaid by another team when he hits free agency in a matter of days.
Similar to the Nate Solder situation, right now, Trey Flowers is irreplaceable. Derek Rivers, Adrian Clayborn and Deatrich Wise are the next guys up, all who have had shaky careers with the Patriots thus far. All have received inconsistent playing time (in favor of, you guessed it, Trey Flowers) which would make it impossible for them to fill Flowers’ massive, versatile shoes. Again, Flowers can play literally every position up front and can play them all nearly perfect. No one else on the Patriots can do that, let alone almost anyone else in the entire National Football League. As I noted while recounting the Solder fiasco, the Patriots cannot draft for immediate need in a free agent situation like this. Drafting for need, especially early on, never goes well and never pans out the way it needs to. What’s different in this current situation compared to the one the team was in this time last year is the fact that Flowers is an insane talent that you can’t find just anywhere. We felt the same way with the left tackle position, but this time feels extremely different to me, given the position that Flowers plays. With New England’s constantly changing defensive edge and general schemes, finding a diamond in the rough like Flowers is crucial to their success and stability. Losing him would be detrimental to what the reigning Super Bowl champions have going on right now on the defensive side of the football.
To the point of this blog, I feel extremely unconfident in the Patriots being able to bring Flowers back. It was reported a few days ago that Flowers will most likely receive a payday in the $14-17 million per year range, which New England is currently unable to provide him given that they are projected to have less than $15 million in cap space. Dee Ford has already been franchise tagged and those on the same tier as them to the likes of DeMarcus Lawrence, Frank Clark and Jadeveon Clowney are also expected to be tagged by their respective teams by the March 5th deadline. Flowers is not expected to be tagged by New England, leaving him as one of the top and most sought after free agents on the entire market.
Philadelphia’s Brandon Graham recently signed a new deal with the Eagles, elevating Flowers’ monetary ceiling even higher than it was before by receiving a 3-year, $40 million deal. The 30-year-old pass rusher has more or less set the DE market by receiving a little more than $13 million a year, slightly less than what was being reported in regards to Flowers’ potential market. Flowers should and will unequivocally get a bigger deal than Graham, keeping the Patriots in an even more uncomfortable position than before. $17 million is pretty much Flowers’ floor now, which would force New England to clear up a large amount of space that they really can’t afford to get rid of, literally and figuratively. They’re going to want to keep the majority of this Super Bowl winning team together and few guys will want to take pay cuts, or at least any more than they have already taken in being employed by the Patriots.
The most recent rumor being flown around is that the Miami Dolphins are currently the “frontrunner” to sign Trey Flowers. This makes sense, as Brian Flores is now their head coach and the Patriots’ former linebackers coach and defensive play-caller. Aforementioned, Flowers is largely undervalued by most and simply isn’t as well known as other players who share the same caliber. If anyone knows the type of player Flowers is and how meaningful he can be to any given team’s defense, it’s Brian Flores. The Dolphins are projected to have about $20 million in cap space to begin the offseason but is expected to free up some room by releasing several of their veterans and making space to sign a Flowers-esque guy to a big contract. Let the record show, if we as fans have to face Trey Flowers twice a year in a Dolphins uniform, I will simultaneously vomit and bawl my eyes out on both occasions for the entirety of the game. I cannot and will not stand for Flowers signing a contract with another AFC East team.
Patriots fans typically live and die by the mantra of ”In Bill We Trust” and whatever Bill Belichick does and chooses to do, they will stand behind it and die on that hill. It’s hard to blame them since literally everything Bill Belichick touches turns to gold almost instantaneously. I’m honestly one of those people ~90 percent of the time. In this case, letting Flowers walk and refusing to shore up money for a homegrown talent like him would be extremely unsettling. Look, I’m well aware that the Patriots do not pay anyone, let alone big name free agents, let their own players, let alone their own players who happen to be big name free agents, let alone their own players who happen to be big name free agents who are set on breaking the bank. It happens legitimately every single year. Regardless, I’m still not going to be happy about it and I’m still going to be a nervous wreck about the situation until the season begins and they all prove my doubts wrong as a collective team and make me feel foolish for even worrying in the first place. But this situation feels much different than others based on the caliber of the player and their impact on the field. Flowers playing a typically overvalued position pretty much ensures that a team not named the New England Patriots will give him even more money than he’s asking for, especially given that the player is a former Patriot. The rest of the NFL absolutely loves employing former Patriots and paying them an egregious amount of money.
Once the March 5 tagging deadline passes, teams will throw massive offers towards Flowers left and right and the Patriots will quickly be squeezed out of the negotiating table, and that is if they’re forced out before they leave the table voluntarily. It is already alarming enough that there hasn’t been a sliver of news regarding any negotiations between the Patriots and Trey Flowers. Once Flowers sees the money being offered to him, there’s no way in hell he’ll even consider taking a reduced contract just to remain with the Patriots. I’m assuming, based on human logic. The sting of losing him won’t hurt any less, though. Edge rushers and general players like him are so hard to come by and letting him slip away would be brutal.
He is extremely durable, which is something that the Patriots have lacked for so long on defense. Losing a durable player like Trey Flowers after searching so long for an anchor like him would be less than ideal. He is one of the most versatile and consistent front line defenders in all of football. His combined big-game and big-play ability make it easy to think that the Patriots have no shot at bringing him back. Flowers knows his worth; he and his agent will ensure that he gets paid what he is worth, which is, spoiler alert: a lot.
People forget that the only game Flowers missed in 2018 was the infamous Detroit Lions game in Week 3, a game in which the Patriots looked utterly lost for all sixty minutes defensively. If that’s what life without Trey Flowers is going to look like for the near future, then I’m going to need the New England Patriots to pull off a miracle of sorts and do Trey Flowers and themselves as a franchise right and bring this man back, whatever it takes.
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