One can’t help but wonder what kind of episode the cast of It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia would have put out in reaction to their team’s 38-7 dismantling of the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game at home.
A rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX has been set and the Eagles are undoubtedly the best team New England will play all year. These two teams most recently played each other in 2015 and the Eagles embarrassed New England at home 35-28, so it’s been a hot minute since either team has even thought about the other. Since December of 2015, both teams have changed quite a bit: Brady is somehow even better and Philly’s defense is legit, to put it lightly.
If any Patriots fan takes anything out of this article, I want them to know that the Birds’ defense is something to fear. They posted some decent regular season stats: they ranked fourth in the NFL in points allowed per game (18.4) and total yards per game (306.5). Plus, Philly allowed an average of 79.2 rushing yards per game and had the league’s third-best opponent QB rating (44.6). They’ve allowed a measly 8.25 points per game over their last four.
The most notable statistic, in my opinion, is how the Eagles allowed the second-most running back receiving touchdowns with 5. They’ll have to deal with New England’s notorious RB committee, most likely consisting of Rex Burkhead, James White and Dion Lewis. Which linebacker(s) will have the privilege of at least attempting to stop them, I’m not sure, but what I do know is that they have a plethora of options for doing so. Their utility man in Malcolm Jenkins could be used in many different roles; I believe he’d match up best against Lewis out of the three from Philly’s point of view. Two of the most athletic at their position going up against each other would be a joy to watch.
Jenkins could also, and will probably, be given the task of stifling Rob Gronkowski. Jenkins is also a phenomenal blitzer, but of course, everyone and their mother is aware that Brady can pick up a blitz and get the ball out before the player even has a chance to break the offensive line. Philly defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz has even brought that up before. If I had to come up with a defensive scheme to beat TB12 in the Super Bowl, I’d go with a classic four-man rush and stick almost solely to that. After all, both the 2007 and 2011 New York Giants beat New England using just that. Their defensive line consisting of guys like Fletcher Cox, Timmy Jernigan, Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett could do damage if the Patriots’ offensive line isn’t on top of their game on February 4.
Speaking of their defensive line, it’s fairly evident that their defense is built off of it. Their depth is surely to be a major advantage for them as the Super Bowl goes along. To go along with Graham, Cox, Jernigan and Barnett, they’ve got Chris Long, Vinny Curry, Beau Allen and Destiny Vaeao along the front seven. Darby, Mills, Corey Graham, Patrick Robinson and Rodney McLeod are all very different yet talented secondary players who can give an offensive corps a run for their money. Expect these players to go through a never-ending turnstile to keep each others’ legs fresh come gameday.
It will be interesting, however, to see how they deal with New England’s vertical offense. There will be few one-on-one matchups; I could see Brandin Cooks going up against a cover one with either Jalen Mills or Ronald Darby, if that much. Danny Amendola will probably see multiple guys cover him throughout the game, as well as Chris Hogan. I doubt you will see much man-to-man played, instead simple zone coverage.
As far as their offense goes, with Mr. Inconsistency Foles at quarterback, who knows what to expect. Foles, though, is coming off quite the performance in the Championship Game against the league’s best defense, obliterating them for 352 yards and three touchdowns plus a 141 quarterback rating. Two of those touchdowns were good for 40-plus yards. Foles has yet to throw a pick this postseason, which is uncharacteristic for him, as we all know.
The Eagles have scored an average of 26.5 points per game this postseason and have averaged 395 yards per game thus far, and Foles owns a 77.8 completion percentage and 122.1 passer rating. Not too shabby, but he’s due for a stinker. He’s almost certainly going to continue to rely on LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi on the ground who have molded into Doug Pederson’s offense well this season. Ajayi can run and catch and is one of the better third down backs in the league, and as Patriots fans know, Blount is a monster at the goal line. Albeit, you have to think that especially on a stage like the Super Bowl, that trio is one big fumble waiting to happen. Out of them, only Blount has been in front of such bright lights, and he hasn’t exactly had an easy breezy time out there.
The primary determining factor that will either keep this game close or make it a blowout will be Mr. Inconsistency’s play. There is no in between: we will either get Good Nick Foles or Bad Nick Foles. If we get Good Nick Foles, this will be a nail-biter and it will be the definition of a sixty minute game. Good Nick Foles successfully gets the ball out quickly and confidently. Bad Nick Foles throws multiple picks and double clutches the ball before getting swallowed up for a major loss. Having a Pro Bowler in Zach Ertz who recently had the game of his life certainly helps and having a veteran receiver in Alshon Jeffery doesn’t hurt, either. Without Ertz, I highly doubt the Eagles are where they are right now. As scary as it is for Eagles fans, they’re going to have to rely on Foles to keep the game close, which isn’t totally far-fetched considering how he’s on quite the hot streak.
PFF recently named Philadelphia’s offensive line the league’s best in 2017. They’re at least partially responsible for Carson Wentz being the MVP candidate he was before his season abruptly ended. That offensive line could be another deciding factor in this game, and I fully expect them to show up like they have all season.
As far as coaching goes, I don’t think I need to go into much detail here. Experience is almost everything in championship games, especially close ones, so pardon me for believing in Tom Brady and Bill Belichick more than I do in Nick Foles and Doug Pederson. I’m actually quite the fan of what Pederson has done in just two seasons as Philly’s coach, but the man was coaching high school ball less than ten years ago. While I expect Pederson and his staff to welcome the task of facing Bill Belichick and co., I can also see them crapping their drawers and losing any and all logical reasoning in this game as Belichick glares at them from across the field with Ernie Adams standing one foot behind the Eagles as they warm up pregame.
While this game has the ability to be great, it also has the ability to be terrible. Both teams are resilient and have suffered tremendous injuries on both sides of the ball – New England lost arguably their second-most important player in the preseason, their defensive captain and Pro Bowl right tackle to name a few. The Eagles lost their special teams captain, starting quarterback and kicker to name a few. Yet here they both are in Minneapolis, a win away from becoming world champions. Will Nick Foles puke on the field like Donovan McNabb? Or will the Patriots win three out of four Super Bowls for the second time since the start of the century? Maybe the Patriots will score in the first quarter of the title game at last. There’s only one way to find out, and it should be fun.
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